WESTERN KENTUCKY
HILLTOPPERSWKU
7-4 | Road
67
JACKSONVILLE STATE
GAMECOCKSJXST
5-6 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
HILLTOPPERS
0%
GAMECOCKS
100%
HILLTOPPERS
--
GAMECOCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Western Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WKU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)
WKU By 1-7 points
23.0%
WKU By 8-14 points
27.2%
JXST By 1-7 points
10.7%
JXST By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Kentucky
64
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Jacksonville State
54
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
Western Kentucky
69
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Jacksonville State
78
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hilltoppers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gamecocks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hilltoppers (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Gamecocks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
JXST @ WKU
71 - 66
Dec 29, 2025
WKU @ JXST
67 - 78
Feb 8, 2025
WKU @ JXST
83 - 85
Jan 9, 2025
JXST @ WKU
73 - 67
Feb 10, 2024
WKU @ JXST
70 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+28.3% more
Western Kentucky: 2.5
vs
Jacksonville State: 1.8
Steals (L5)
+25.8% more
Western Kentucky: 7.4
vs
Jacksonville State: 5.5
Assists (L5)
+24.8% more
Western Kentucky: 15.1
vs
Jacksonville State: 11.3
Rebounding (L5)
+17.5% more
Western Kentucky: 42.5
vs
Jacksonville State: 35.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WKU Score
64.0
67
JXST Score
54.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 37.6
50.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.3 / 15.1
11.0 / 10.0
Blocks
1.8 / 2.5
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 42.2
55.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
62.6 / 77.1
69.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
35.0 / 42.5
35.0 / 44.0
Steals
5.5 / 7.4
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 9.8
17.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
JXST
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
JXST
13-15-1
(46.4%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.2
JXST
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
WKU
JXST
WKU
ML
50%
16-16
56%
18-14
55%
17-14
66%
21-11
ATS
62%
20-12
53%
17-15
55%
17-14
66%
21-11
TTL
62%
20-12
56%
18-14
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
