Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Raiders @ Cougars MTSU @ HOU

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

7-4  |  Road

60
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Fertitta Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

COUGARSHOU

11-1  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
BLUE RAIDERS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
Blue RaidersMTSU (-3.5) 0 CougarsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Raiders Cover

46.0%

Cougars Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

MTSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

MTSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

HOU By 1-7 points

26.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
66
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
58
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
72
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (+26.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 MTSU @ HOU 60 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +59.7% more
Houston: 17.6 vs Middle Tennessee: 11.0
Steals (L5) +29.7% more
Houston: 9.1 vs Middle Tennessee: 7.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.2%
Houston: 40.7% vs Middle Tennessee: 29.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +8.5%
Houston: 49.4% vs Middle Tennessee: 40.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 65.0 60
HOU Score 66.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.7 / 29.5 30.0 / 39.0
Assists 17.6 / 11.0 8.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.1 / 6.1 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 40.8 41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 73.7 88.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 36.8 31.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.1 / 7.0 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 12.0 6.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
HOU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
HOU Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MTSU
HOU
MTSU
ML
70% 26-11
56% 18-14
68% 23-11
69% 22-10
ATS
70% 26-11
75% 24-8
68% 23-11
69% 22-10
TTL
59% 22-15
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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