MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
12-18 | Road
104
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
14-16 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
BUCKS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MIL By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
20.1%
MEM By 1-7 points
21.6%
MEM By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
107
MILWAUKEE
Memphis
104
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
109
MILWAUKEE
Memphis
115
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u227.5
Loss
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
MEM @ MIL
115 - 131
Dec 26, 2025
MIL @ MEM
104 - 125
Feb 2, 2025
MEM @ MIL
132 - 119
Oct 31, 2024
MIL @ MEM
99 - 122
Apr 3, 2024
MEM @ MIL
111 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
Milwaukee: 77.9%
vs
Memphis: 74.1%
Blocks (L5)
+41.1% more
Memphis: 5.7
vs
Milwaukee: 4.1
Assists (L5)
+36.9% more
Memphis: 32.4
vs
Milwaukee: 23.7
Steals (L5)
+25.1% more
Memphis: 8.9
vs
Milwaukee: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
107.0
104
MEM Score
104.0
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 34.0
38.0 / 36.0
Assists
32.4 / 23.7
28.0 / 18.0
Blocks
5.7 / 4.1
9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 46.5
51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 77.9
81.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
44.9 / 44.2
42.0 / 48.0
Steals
8.9 / 7.1
12.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.8 / 16.4
14.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
MIL
MEM
MIL
ML
57%
59-44
64%
61-35
50%
41-41
60%
49-32
ATS
63%
65-38
68%
65-31
50%
41-41
60%
49-32
TTL
70%
71-31-1
55%
53-43
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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