MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
20-10 | Road
138
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
21-8 | Home
142
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
NUGGETS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
205.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
MIN By 1-7 points
24.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
13.7%
DEN By 1-7 points
26.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
102
MINNESOTA
Denver
103
DENVER
Simulated Score
Minnesota
109
MINNESOTA
Denver
112
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+1)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u238.5
Loss
Proj Total: 205.0
D
Sim
u238.5
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+30.2% more
Denver: 33.1
vs
Minnesota: 25.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.0%
Denver: 85.7%
vs
Minnesota: 69.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.0%
Denver: 44.7%
vs
Minnesota: 32.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Denver: 52.2%
vs
Minnesota: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
102.0
138
DEN Score
103.0
142
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.7 / 32.6
44.0 / 27.0
Assists
33.1 / 25.4
31.0 / 31.0
Blocks
3.1 / 6.4
5.0 / 12.0
Field Goal %
52.2 / 43.5
47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
85.7 / 69.8
91.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
40.4 / 46.6
45.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.1 / 10.1
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 12.2
17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MIN
DEN
MIN
ML
54%
57-48
54%
63-53
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
67-49
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
TTL
54%
56-48-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
86-0
100%
93-0
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