Home / NBA Projections NBA / Knicks @ Timberwolves NY @ MIN

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

20-8  |  Road

104
FINAL
Tue, Dec 23 • 8:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

19-10  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
KNICKS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
KNICKS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Minnesota)
KnicksNY (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knicks Cover

34.5%

Timberwolves Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

NY By 1-7 points

20.1%

NY By 8-14 points

9.3%

MIN By 1-7 points

27.4%

MIN By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
110
NEW YORK
114
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
108
NEW YORK
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u229.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim u229.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 23, 2025 NY @ MIN 104 - 115
Nov 5, 2025 MIN @ NY 114 - 137
Oct 9, 2025 MIN @ NY 95 - 100
Jan 17, 2025 MIN @ NY 116 - 99
Dec 19, 2024 NY @ MIN 133 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +33.5% more
Minnesota: 9.2 vs New York: 6.9
Blocks (L5) +21.3% more
Minnesota: 5.1 vs New York: 4.2
Turnovers (L5) +10.4% more
New York: 14.2 vs Minnesota: 12.8
Free Throw % (L5) +8.3%
New York: 78.0% vs Minnesota: 69.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NY Score 110.0 104
MIN Score 114.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 40.6 33.0 / 37.0
Assists 25.6 / 27.4 25.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.2 9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 50.3 45.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.7 / 78.0 70.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 48.9 / 46.2 42.0 / 55.0
Steals 9.2 / 6.9 12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 14.2 11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NY
MIN
NY
ML
54% 63-53
61% 114-72
54% 50-43
56% 57-45
ATS
58% 67-49
67% 124-62
54% 50-43
56% 57-45
TTL
63% 72-43-1
72% 133-53
100% 93-0
100% 102-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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