MISSOURI
TIGERSMIZ
10-2 | Road
48
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
8-3 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
FIGHTING ILLINI
100%
TIGERS
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILL +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
MIZ By 1-7 points
25.3%
MIZ By 8-14 points
26.2%
ILL By 1-7 points
13.7%
ILL By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Missouri
77
MISSOURI
Illinois
69
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Missouri
70
MISSOURI
Illinois
75
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (+9)
Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 22, 2025
MIZ @ ILL
48 - 91
Dec 22, 2024
ILL @ MIZ
80 - 77
Dec 22, 2023
MIZ @ ILL
73 - 97
Dec 22, 2022
ILL @ MIZ
71 - 93
Dec 22, 2021
MIZ @ ILL
63 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+66.4% more
Missouri: 7.7
vs
Illinois: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+32.6% more
Missouri: 12.8
vs
Illinois: 8.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
Missouri: 53.6%
vs
Illinois: 46.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Missouri: 37.4%
vs
Illinois: 34.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score
77.0
48
ILL Score
69.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 37.4
45.0 / 27.0
Assists
14.7 / 15.2
20.0 / 6.0
Blocks
4.6 / 4.5
8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 53.6
52.0 / 29.0
Free Throw %
76.6 / 66.4
80.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 34.3
43.0 / 24.0
Steals
2.6 / 7.7
3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 12.8
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.3
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
MIZ
ILL
MIZ
ML
65%
24-13
61%
20-13
57%
20-15
69%
22-10
ATS
70%
26-11
70%
23-10
57%
20-15
69%
22-10
TTL
57%
21-16
79%
26-7
100%
35-0
100%
32-0
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