Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Griffins @ Dukes CAN @ DUQ

CANISIUS

GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN

5-7  |  Road

59
FINAL
Mon, Dec 22 • 7:00 PM ET
UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

DUQUESNE

DUKESDUQ

6-5  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
GOLDEN GRIFFINS --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
DUQUESNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Duquesne)
Golden GriffinsCAN (-3.5) 0 DukesDUQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Griffins Cover

0.1%

Dukes Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUQ -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUQ)

CAN By 1-7 points

0.1%

CAN By 8-14 points

0.0%

DUQ By 1-7 points

0.8%

DUQ By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
48
CANISIUS
79
DUQUESNE
Simulated Score
65
CANISIUS
72
DUQUESNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2025 CAN @ DUQ 59 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +57.6% more
Duquesne: 3.6 vs Canisius: 2.3
Assists (L5) +33.2% more
Duquesne: 15.1 vs Canisius: 11.4
Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
Duquesne: 44.6% vs Canisius: 36.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.4%
Duquesne: 75.1% vs Canisius: 69.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAN Score 48.0 59
DUQ Score 79.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 32.8 46.0 / 36.0
Assists 15.1 / 11.4 29.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.3 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 36.6 60.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 69.7 76.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 36.6 34.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.9 / 5.9 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 15.2 10.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAN
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
DUQ Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAN
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
DUQ Advantage
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4% Total +/-: -3.6
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUQ
CAN
DUQ
CAN
ML
53% 17-15
55% 17-14
58% 18-13
68% 21-10
ATS
69% 22-10
65% 20-11
58% 18-13
68% 21-10
TTL
50% 16-16
58% 18-13
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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