Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Alabama @ Indiana ALA @ IU

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

11-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 4:00 PM ET
Rose Bowl
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

13-0  |  Home

38
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA
100%
📊
INDIANA
0%
ALABAMA --
INDIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Indiana)
AlabamaALA (-3.5) 0 IndianaIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alabama Cover

4.3%

Indiana Cover

95.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

ALA By 1-6 points

2.5%

ALA By 7-13 points

1.1%

IU By 1-6 points

5.9%

IU By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
7
ALABAMA
31
INDIANA
Simulated Score
38
ALABAMA
17
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Alabama Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
B
Sim Alabama (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 1, 2026 ALA @ IU 3 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +152.3% more
Indiana: 191.3 vs Alabama: 75.8
Total Yards (L5) +40.0% more
Indiana: 423.0 vs Alabama: 302.2
First Downs (L5) +25.2% more
Indiana: 20.5 vs Alabama: 16.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Indiana: 0.5 vs Alabama: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 7.0 3
IU Score 31.0 38
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
IU
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
IU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
ALA
IU
ALA
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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