Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Ohio State MIA @ OSU

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

11-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 7:30 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

12-1  |  Home

14
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Joe McGuire None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
100%
📊
OHIO STATE
0%
MIAMI --
OHIO STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ohio State)
MiamiMIA (-3.5) 0 Ohio StateOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

47.2%

Ohio State Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

MIA By 1-6 points

16.1%

MIA By 7-13 points

14.6%

OSU By 1-6 points

16.7%

OSU By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
24
MIAMI
25
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
34
MIAMI
24
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio State Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Miami Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio State (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Sim Miami (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Sim o40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 MIA @ OSU 24 - 14
Key Model Drivers
No driver metrics compiled for this game.
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 24.0 24
OSU Score 25.0 14
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
OSU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
OSU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
MIA
OSU
MIA
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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