Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tennessee @ Illinois TENN @ ILL

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

8-4  |  Road

28
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 5:30 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

8-4  |  Home

30
Key Game
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
@
Ben Clawson
KEY GAME

Ben Clawson

#21 | Defensive Back
Player
Jackson Ross None-None
Ben Clawson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TENNESSEE
0%
📊
ILLINOIS
100%
TENNESSEE --
ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Tennessee)
TennesseeTENN (-3.5) 0 IllinoisILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tennessee Cover

61.2%

Illinois Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TENN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

TENN By 1-6 points

17.0%

TENN By 7-13 points

18.0%

ILL By 1-6 points

14.7%

ILL By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
31
TENNESSEE
27
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
24
TENNESSEE
27
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Tennessee Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Illinois Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Tennessee (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Sim Illinois (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u62.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Sim u62.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 30, 2025 TENN @ ILL 28 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +21.7% more
Tennessee: 428.5 vs Illinois: 335.6
First Downs (L5) +20.5% more
Tennessee: 24.2 vs Illinois: 19.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5 vs Illinois: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Tennessee: 149.5 vs Illinois: 127.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 31.0 28
ILL Score 27.0 30
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
TENN
ILL
TENN
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
TTL
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
Wisconsin Badgers Rank Third in National TV Viewership Through E…
si 5 hours, 46 minutes ago
Texas Longhorns Lead College Football Viewership Through Week 5,…
si 5 hours, 46 minutes ago
Five Burning College Football Questions Set to Be Answered This …
foxnews 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 5 hours, 48 minutes ago