Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Timberwolves GS @ MIN

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

1-3  |  Road

110
FINAL
Wed, May 14 • 9:30 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

3-1  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
WARRIORS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Minnesota)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

36.3%

Timberwolves Cover

63.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

GS By 1-7 points

20.9%

GS By 8-14 points

10.0%

MIN By 1-7 points

27.3%

MIN By 8-14 points

20.9%

AI Model Projected Score
105.31
GOLDEN STATE
108.81
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
112
GOLDEN STATE
116
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.5
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 214.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MIN @ GS 127 - 117
Jan 26, 2026 GS @ MIN 83 - 108
Jan 25, 2026 GS @ MIN 111 - 85
Dec 12, 2025 MIN @ GS 127 - 120
May 14, 2025 GS @ MIN 110 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +51.7% more
Minnesota: 5.4 vs Golden State: 3.5
Assists (L5) +14.9% more
Minnesota: 24.8 vs Golden State: 21.6
Turnovers (L5) +11.3% more
Minnesota: 17.5 vs Golden State: 15.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Minnesota: 46.3% vs Golden State: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 105.3 110
MIN Score 108.8 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 35.2 41.9 / 28.2
Assists 24.8 / 21.6 36.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.4 / 3.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 43.3 62.8 / 43.3
Free Throw % 80.8 / 79.8 66.7 / 70.0
Rebounding 41.6 / 39.9 39.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.3 11.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 17.5 / 15.7 21.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
GS
MIN
GS
ML
54% 63-53
55% 95-79
54% 50-43
58% 49-35
ATS
58% 67-49
58% 101-73
54% 50-43
58% 49-35
TTL
63% 72-43-1
77% 134-40
100% 93-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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