Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Pitt @ East Carolina PITT @ ECU

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

8-4  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 11:00 AM ET
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

8-4  |  Home

23
Key Game
Cataurus Hicks
KEY GAME

Cataurus Hicks

#3 | Wide Receiver
@
Tomas O'Halloran
KEY GAME

Tomas O'Halloran

#48 | Punter
Player
Cataurus Hicks None-None
Tomas O'Halloran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PITT
100%
📊
EAST CAROLINA
0%
PITT --
EAST CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
68.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (East Carolina)
PittPITT (-3.5) 0 East CarolinaECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pitt Cover

5.8%

East Carolina Cover

94.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ECU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

PITT By 1-6 points

3.3%

PITT By 7-13 points

1.5%

ECU By 1-6 points

7.2%

ECU By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
23
PITTSBURGH
45
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
17
PITTSBURGH
27
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI East Carolina Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim East Carolina Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI East Carolina (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
B
Sim East Carolina (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 68.0
B
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 PITT @ ECU 17 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +102.6% more
East Carolina: 205.7 vs Pittsburgh: 101.5
Total Yards (L5) +41.7% more
East Carolina: 468.8 vs Pittsburgh: 330.9
First Downs (L5) +32.5% more
East Carolina: 24.0 vs Pittsburgh: 18.1
Turnovers (L5) +27.8% more
East Carolina: 1.5 vs Pittsburgh: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 23.0 17
ECU Score 45.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.0 / 18.1 11.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 205.7 / 101.5 72.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.13 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 468.8 / 330.9 249.0 / 376.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
ECU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
ECU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
ECU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
PITT
ECU
PITT
ML
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
Pete Golding Emphasizes Execution Over Scheme Change as Ole Miss…
si 1 day ago
Boston College Hockey Secures Commitment from USNTDP Forward Sam…
si 1 day ago
Red River Rivalry 2026: Essential Fan Guide for Sooners vs. Long…
news9 1 day, 6 hours ago
College Football Legend Dennis Franchione Passes Away at 75
aggieswire 2 days, 5 hours ago