Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Timberwolves OKC @ MIN

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

25-2  |  Road

107
FINAL
Fri, Dec 19 • 9:30 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

17-10  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
THUNDER --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
203.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Minnesota)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

0.3%

Timberwolves Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

OKC By 1-7 points

0.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

0.0%

MIN By 1-7 points

2.2%

MIN By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
88
OKLAHOMA CITY
115
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 203.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 MIN @ OKC 103 - 116
Jan 29, 2026 OKC @ MIN 111 - 123
Dec 19, 2025 OKC @ MIN 107 - 112
Nov 26, 2025 MIN @ OKC 105 - 113
May 28, 2025 MIN @ OKC 94 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.3% more
Minnesota: 14.7 vs Oklahoma City: 12.0
Blocks (L5) +19.6% more
Minnesota: 5.4 vs Oklahoma City: 4.5
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
Minnesota: 47.1 vs Oklahoma City: 43.1
Steals (L5) +30.8% more
Oklahoma City: 13.3 vs Minnesota: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 88.0 107
MIN Score 115.0 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 38.5 35.0 / 28.0
Assists 26.6 / 27.1 20.0 / 16.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.5 6.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 50.2 38.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 73.0 / 81.2 70.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 47.1 / 43.1 57.0 / 52.0
Steals 9.2 / 13.3 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 12.0 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
OKC
MIN
OKC
ML
54% 63-53
70% 80-34
54% 50-43
48% 46-49
ATS
58% 67-49
73% 83-30-1
54% 50-43
48% 46-49
TTL
63% 72-43-1
67% 76-38
100% 93-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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