Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / California @ Hawai'i CAL @ HAW

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

7-5  |  Road

31
FINAL
Wed, Dec 24 • 8:00 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

8-4  |  Home

35
Key Game
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
@
Luther McCoy
KEY GAME

Luther McCoy

#52 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Chase Meyer None-None
Luther McCoy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
100%
📊
HAWAI'I
0%
CALIFORNIA --
HAWAI'I --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Hawai'i)
CaliforniaCAL (-3.5) 0 Hawai'iHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

California Cover

1.9%

Hawai'i Cover

98.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HAW -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

CAL By 1-6 points

1.2%

CAL By 7-13 points

0.4%

HAW By 1-6 points

3.3%

HAW By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
13
CALIFORNIA
42
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
31
CALIFORNIA
20
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Hawai'i Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim California Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Hawai'i (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
A
Sim California (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Sim u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 24, 2025 CAL @ HAW 31 - 35
Aug 26, 2016 HAW @ CAL 31 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +58.1% more
Hawai'i: 109.1 vs California: 69.0
First Downs (L5) +18.7% more
California: 20.7 vs Hawai'i: 16.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 13.0 31
HAW Score 42.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 20.7 24.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 109.1 / 69.0 93.0 / 145.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 385.2 / 369.3 395.0 / 488.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
CAL
HAW
CAL
ML
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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