Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Gauchos NOB @ UCSB

NOBEL

KNIGHTSNOB

0-0  |  Road

49
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 9:00 PM ET
The Thunderdome
View Odds Details →

UC SANTA BARBARA

GAUCHOSUCSB

4-2  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
📊
GAUCHOS
0%
KNIGHTS --
GAUCHOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
UC SANTA BARBARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (UC Santa Barbara)
KnightsNOB (-3.5) 0 GauchosUCSB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

0.5%

Gauchos Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSB -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSB)

NOB By 1-7 points

0.4%

NOB By 8-14 points

0.0%

UCSB By 1-7 points

2.7%

UCSB By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
64
NOBEL
90
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
62
NOBEL
78
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gauchos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gauchos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gauchos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Gauchos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 NOB @ UCSB 49 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +97.9% more
UC Santa Barbara: 14.0 vs Nobel: 7.1
Blocks (L5) +47.5% more
UC Santa Barbara: 3.2 vs Nobel: 2.2
Steals (L5) +46.4% more
UC Santa Barbara: 6.3 vs Nobel: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +21.3% more
UC Santa Barbara: 35.2 vs Nobel: 29.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NOB Score 64.0 49
UCSB Score 90.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 21.7 47.0 / 18.0
Assists 14.0 / 7.1 19.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.2 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 36.1 58.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.4 / 74.4 65.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 29.0 37.0 / 23.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.3 13.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 17.2 16.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NOB
--
UCSB Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NOB
--
UCSB Advantage
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NOB
--
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
NOB
UCSB
NOB
ML
59% 19-13
100% 6-0
72% 23-9
100% 6-0
ATS
62% 20-12
100% 6-0
72% 23-9
100% 6-0
TTL
47% 15-17
67% 4-2
100% 32-0
100% 6-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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