Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Toledo @ Louisville TOL @ LOU

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

8-4  |  Road

22
FINAL
Tue, Dec 23 • 2:00 PM ET
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

8-4  |  Home

27
Key Game
Anthony Ruggles
KEY GAME

Anthony Ruggles

#39 | Place kicker
@
Eric Hazzard
KEY GAME

Eric Hazzard

#40 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Anthony Ruggles None-None
Eric Hazzard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOLEDO
0%
📊
LOUISVILLE
100%
TOLEDO --
LOUISVILLE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Toledo)
ToledoTOL (-3.5) 0 LouisvilleLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toledo Cover

93.3%

Louisville Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TOL -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

TOL By 1-6 points

7.9%

TOL By 7-13 points

14.6%

LOU By 1-6 points

3.8%

LOU By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24
TOLEDO
3
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
20
TOLEDO
31
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Toledo Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Louisville Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Toledo (-11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
B
Sim Louisville (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 27.0
B
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 23, 2025 TOL @ LOU 22 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.3% more
Toledo: 1.4 vs Louisville: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Toledo: 0.4 vs Louisville: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.7% more
Louisville: 193.4 vs Toledo: 173.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 24.0 22
LOU Score 3.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 19.0 23.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 193.4 / 173.1 180.0 / 169.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.11 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 369.7 / 399.3 333.0 / 336.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
LOU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
TOL
LOU
TOL
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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