UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
8-3 | Road
53
UTAH VALLEY
WOLVERINESUVU
8-3 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
100%
WOLVERINES
0%
GAUCHOS
--
WOLVERINES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
99.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
UTAH VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Utah Valley)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVU)
UCSB By 1-7 points
0.3%
UCSB By 8-14 points
0.0%
UVU By 1-7 points
2.2%
UVU By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Santa Barbara
36
UC SANTA BARBARA
Utah Valley
63
UTAH VALLEY
Simulated Score
UC Santa Barbara
68
UC SANTA BARBARA
Utah Valley
72
UTAH VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolverines
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Wolverines (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 99.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
UCSB @ UVU
53 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+65.7% more
Utah Valley: 4.7
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 2.8
Steals (L5)
+30.9% more
Utah Valley: 10.0
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 7.6
Turnovers (L5)
+29.1% more
Utah Valley: 16.4
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 12.7
Assists (L5)
+9.4% more
Utah Valley: 18.2
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 16.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score
36.0
53
UVU Score
63.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 38.9
36.0 / 23.0
Assists
18.2 / 16.6
17.0 / 7.0
Blocks
4.7 / 2.8
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.4 / 48.4
40.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
73.6 / 80.3
78.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 36.9
38.0 / 35.0
Steals
10.0 / 7.6
12.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.4 / 12.7
15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UVU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
Advantage
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UVU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVU
UCSB
UVU
UCSB
ML
56%
18-14
59%
19-13
72%
23-9
72%
23-9
ATS
53%
17-15
62%
20-12
74%
25-9
72%
23-9
TTL
44%
14-18
47%
15-17
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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