Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Alabama @ Oklahoma ALA @ OU

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

10-3  |  Road

34
FINAL
Fri, Dec 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

10-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Red Morgan
KEY GAME

Red Morgan

#6 | Defensive Back
@
Grayson Miller
KEY GAME

Grayson Miller

#43 | Place kicker
Player
Red Morgan None-None
Grayson Miller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA
0%
📊
OKLAHOMA
100%
ALABAMA --
OKLAHOMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Alabama)
AlabamaALA (-3.5) 0 OklahomaOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alabama Cover

80.4%

Oklahoma Cover

19.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ALA -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ALA By 1-6 points

14.2%

ALA By 7-13 points

19.5%

OU By 1-6 points

9.3%

OU By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
23
ALABAMA
11
OKLAHOMA
Simulated Score
24
ALABAMA
31
OKLAHOMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Alabama Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Oklahoma Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Alabama (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
B
Sim Oklahoma (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 19, 2025 ALA @ OU 34 - 24
Nov 15, 2025 OU @ ALA 23 - 21
Nov 23, 2024 ALA @ OU 3 - 24
Dec 29, 2018 OU @ ALA 34 - 45
Jan 2, 2014 OU @ ALA 45 - 31
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +19.3% more
Alabama: 18.6 vs Oklahoma: 15.0
Turnovers (L5) +21.7% more
Oklahoma: 1.4 vs Alabama: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 23.0 34
OU Score 11.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.0 / 18.6 18.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 104.3 / 99.8 55.0 / 28.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.39 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 326.0 / 323.3 362.0 / 260.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
OU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
OU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
OU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OU
ALA
OU
ALA
ML
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
20% 1-4
ATS
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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