UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
5-3 | Road
62
OREGON
DUCKSORE
4-5 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
DUCKS
0%
AGGIES
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Oregon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORE -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)
UCD By 1-7 points
0.0%
UCD By 8-14 points
0.0%
ORE By 1-7 points
0.1%
ORE By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Davis
57
UC DAVIS
Oregon
96
OREGON
Simulated Score
UC Davis
65
UC DAVIS
Oregon
78
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Ducks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ducks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ducks (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Sim
Ducks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
UCD @ ORE
62 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+25.0% more
Oregon: 3.4
vs
UC Davis: 2.7
Steals (L5)
+29.3% more
UC Davis: 7.1
vs
Oregon: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+8.4% more
UC Davis: 13.3
vs
Oregon: 12.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
UC Davis: 47.6%
vs
Oregon: 39.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCD Score
57.0
62
ORE Score
96.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.2 / 32.2
48.0 / 27.0
Assists
12.2 / 13.3
22.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.7
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
39.9 / 47.6
61.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
70.0 / 75.9
74.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 32.1
43.0 / 21.0
Steals
5.0 / 7.1
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 12.5
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
UCD
ORE
UCD
ML
56%
18-14
58%
19-14
62%
18-11
64%
21-12
ATS
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
62%
18-11
64%
21-12
TTL
59%
19-13
61%
20-13
100%
29-0
100%
33-0
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