Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Friars BRWN @ PROV

BROWN

BEARSBRWN

5-6  |  Road

79
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 7:30 PM ET
Amica Mutual Pavilion
View Odds Details →

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

6-4  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
FRIARS
0%
BEARS --
FRIARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Providence)
BearsBRWN (-3.5) 0 FriarsPROV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

1.4%

Friars Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PROV -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)

BRWN By 1-7 points

1.1%

BRWN By 8-14 points

0.1%

PROV By 1-7 points

5.8%

PROV By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
51
BROWN
73
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
68
BROWN
75
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Friars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Friars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Friars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Friars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 BRWN @ PROV 79 - 86
Dec 10, 2023 BRWN @ PROV 54 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.4% more
Providence: 5.7 vs Brown: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5) +10.2%
Providence: 77.1% vs Brown: 66.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Providence: 43.6% vs Brown: 38.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Providence: 52.0% vs Brown: 47.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRWN Score 51.0 79
PROV Score 73.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.6 / 38.0 31.0 / 38.0
Assists 18.7 / 17.9 16.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.7 / 4.3 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 52.0 / 47.2 46.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 66.9 86.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 41.8 44.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.1 / 11.0 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 11.2 14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRWN
9-18-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
PROV Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRWN
14-12-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
PROV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BRWN
12-13-0
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0% Total +/-: +0.3
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
BRWN
PROV
BRWN
ML
59% 19-13
56% 15-12
67% 20-10
67% 18-9
ATS
50% 16-16
59% 16-11
67% 20-10
67% 18-9
TTL
44% 14-18
59% 16-11
100% 30-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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