LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
2-7 | Road
77
UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
7-2 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
0%
GAUCHOS
100%
BEACH
--
GAUCHOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
LONG BEACH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Long Beach State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LBSU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LBSU)
LBSU By 1-7 points
5.8%
LBSU By 8-14 points
15.3%
UCSB By 1-7 points
1.1%
UCSB By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Long Beach State
93
LONG BEACH STATE
UC Santa Barbara
71
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
Long Beach State
71
LONG BEACH STATE
UC Santa Barbara
77
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Beach
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Beach (-13.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
UCSB @ LBSU
74 - 71
Dec 4, 2025
LBSU @ UCSB
77 - 84
Feb 22, 2025
UCSB @ LBSU
58 - 56
Feb 1, 2025
LBSU @ UCSB
54 - 85
Mar 7, 2024
UCSB @ LBSU
76 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+12.1% more
Long Beach State: 15.0
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 13.2
Blocks (L5)
+35.4% more
UC Santa Barbara: 2.9
vs
Long Beach State: 2.1
Turnovers (L5)
+26.4% more
UC Santa Barbara: 13.3
vs
Long Beach State: 10.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.2%
UC Santa Barbara: 79.4%
vs
Long Beach State: 63.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score
93.0
77
UCSB Score
71.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 33.4
36.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.2 / 15.0
11.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.1
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 45.4
43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
79.4 / 63.2
84.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
35.1 / 30.4
36.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.7 / 7.8
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 10.5
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCSB
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
LBSU
UCSB
LBSU
ML
59%
19-13
55%
17-14
72%
23-9
65%
20-11
ATS
62%
20-12
68%
21-10
72%
23-9
65%
20-11
TTL
47%
15-17
61%
19-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
