Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Friars FDU @ PROV

FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

KNIGHTSFDU

1-7  |  Road

64
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Amica Mutual Pavilion
View Odds Details →

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

5-4  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
📊
FRIARS
0%
KNIGHTS --
FRIARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Providence)
KnightsFDU (-3.5) 0 FriarsPROV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

11.5%

Friars Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PROV -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)

FDU By 1-7 points

8.0%

FDU By 8-14 points

2.2%

PROV By 1-7 points

20.1%

PROV By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
72
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
84
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
62
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
78
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Friars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Friars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Friars (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Friars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 FDU @ PROV 64 - 94
Dec 5, 2020 FDU @ PROV 67 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.7% more
Providence: 5.9 vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 4.6
Assists (L5) +19.2% more
Providence: 13.8 vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 11.6
Free Throw % (L5) +10.5%
Providence: 77.1% vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 66.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Providence: 34.1% vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 30.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FDU Score 72.0 64
PROV Score 84.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 30.2 56.0 / 42.0
Assists 13.8 / 11.6 28.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.7 8.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 42.2 58.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 66.6 82.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 38.8 / 40.4 31.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.9 / 4.6 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 12.2 10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FDU
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
PROV Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FDU
10-18-1 (35.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
PROV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FDU
9-20-0
O: 31.0% / U: 69.0% Total +/-: -2.5
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
FDU
PROV
FDU
ML
59% 19-13
65% 20-11
67% 20-10
74% 23-8
ATS
50% 16-16
68% 21-10
67% 20-10
74% 23-8
TTL
44% 14-18
58% 18-13
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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