Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia @ Alabama UGA @ ALA

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

11-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 4:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

10-2  |  Home

7
Key Game
Justin Greene
KEY GAME

Justin Greene

#91 | Defensive End
@
Isaia Faga
KEY GAME

Isaia Faga

#88 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Justin Greene None-None
Isaia Faga None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA
100%
📊
ALABAMA
0%
GEORGIA --
ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Alabama)
GeorgiaUGA (-3.5) 0 AlabamaALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia Cover

33.4%

Alabama Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ALA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

UGA By 1-6 points

13.5%

UGA By 7-13 points

10.4%

ALA By 1-6 points

16.7%

ALA By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
14
GEORGIA
20
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
24
GEORGIA
27
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Alabama Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Alabama Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Alabama (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Sim Alabama (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 UGA @ ALA 28 - 7
Sep 27, 2025 ALA @ UGA 24 - 21
Sep 28, 2024 UGA @ ALA 34 - 41
Dec 2, 2023 UGA @ ALA 24 - 27
Jan 10, 2022 UGA @ ALA 33 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.0% more
Alabama: 1.2 vs Georgia: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.2% more
Georgia: 187.0 vs Alabama: 151.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UGA Score 14.0 28
ALA Score 20.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 23.9 11.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 151.1 / 187.0 -3.0 / 141.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.21 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 380.5 / 374.5 209.0 / 297.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
ALA
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
ALA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +12.9
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
UGA
ALA
UGA
ML
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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