BUFFALO
BULLSBUF
8-0 | Road
71
CANISIUS
GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN
4-4 | Home
53
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
100%
BULLS
--
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CANISIUS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CAN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAN)
BUF By 1-7 points
26.2%
BUF By 8-14 points
16.9%
CAN By 1-7 points
24.3%
CAN By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
78
BUFFALO
Canisius
77
CANISIUS
Simulated Score
Buffalo
73
BUFFALO
Canisius
78
CANISIUS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulls
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Griffins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Griffins (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Golden Griffins (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
BUF @ CAN
71 - 53
Nov 27, 2022
CAN @ BUF
66 - 86
Dec 18, 2021
BUF @ CAN
64 - 65
Dec 18, 2019
CAN @ BUF
73 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+55.2% more
Buffalo: 8.1
vs
Canisius: 3.7
Blocks (L5)
+27.8% more
Buffalo: 2.8
vs
Canisius: 2.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.6%
Buffalo: 75.9%
vs
Canisius: 73.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Buffalo: 45.9%
vs
Canisius: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
78.0
71
CAN Score
77.0
53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.3 / 37.9
15.0 / 37.0
Assists
12.4 / 12.0
10.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.8
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 45.9
37.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 75.9
71.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
29.4 / 31.6
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
3.7 / 8.1
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 10.0
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
CAN
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
CAN
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAN
BUF
CAN
BUF
ML
55%
17-14
45%
14-17
68%
21-10
45%
14-17
ATS
65%
20-11
55%
17-14
68%
21-10
45%
14-17
TTL
58%
18-13
48%
15-16
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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