Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Keydets @ Knights VMI @ UCF

VMI

KEYDETSVMI

3-7  |  Road

57
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 1:00 PM ET
Addition Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

7-1  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
KEYDETS
100%
📊
KNIGHTS
0%
KEYDETS --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UCF)
KeydetsVMI (-3.5) 0 KnightsUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Keydets Cover

9.7%

Knights Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCF -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

VMI By 1-7 points

6.8%

VMI By 8-14 points

1.7%

UCF By 1-7 points

18.6%

UCF By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
66
VMI
79
UCF
Simulated Score
61
VMI
82
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knights Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knights (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 VMI @ UCF 57 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +127.3% more
UCF: 17.7 vs VMI: 7.8
Rebounding (L5) +23.7% more
UCF: 39.9 vs VMI: 32.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +17.2%
UCF: 40.6% vs VMI: 23.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +17.1%
UCF: 51.2% vs VMI: 34.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VMI Score 66.0 57
UCF Score 79.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 23.4 13.0 / 24.0
Assists 17.7 / 7.8 19.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.2 / 34.0 40.0 / 28.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 71.8 82.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 39.9 / 32.3 57.0 / 38.0
Steals 4.4 / 6.8 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 11.3 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VMI
6-26-0 (18.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -5.4
UCF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VMI
9-20-0 (31.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -5.4
UCF Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.1
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
VMI
UCF
VMI
ML
55% 18-15
53% 17-15
65% 20-11
84% 27-5
ATS
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
65% 20-11
84% 27-5
TTL
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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