Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bonnies @ Pirates SBU @ ECU

ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

5-1  |  Road

67
FINAL
Thu, Nov 27 • 12:00 PM ET
Suncoast Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

2-4  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
BONNIES --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (East Carolina)
BonniesSBU (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bonnies Cover

24.2%

Pirates Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ECU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

SBU By 1-7 points

15.3%

SBU By 8-14 points

5.8%

ECU By 1-7 points

26.2%

ECU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
76
ST. BONAVENTURE
83
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
72
ST. BONAVENTURE
68
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bonnies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bonnies (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 27, 2025 SBU @ ECU 67 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +39.0% more
East Carolina: 15.9 vs St. Bonaventure: 11.5
Blocks (L5) +39.9% more
St. Bonaventure: 5.2 vs East Carolina: 3.2
Assists (L5) +35.8% more
St. Bonaventure: 15.0 vs East Carolina: 9.7
Steals (L5) +17.1% more
St. Bonaventure: 7.7 vs East Carolina: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SBU Score 76.0 67
ECU Score 83.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.0 / 38.7 31.0 / 32.0
Assists 9.7 / 15.0 7.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.2 / 5.2 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 38.0 / 45.6 29.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 70.6 84.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 35.0 40.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.7 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.9 / 11.5 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
ECU Advantage
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
SBU
ECU
SBU
ML
55% 17-14
59% 20-14
55% 17-14
61% 20-13
ATS
52% 16-15
50% 17-17
55% 17-14
61% 20-13
TTL
61% 19-12
38% 13-21
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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