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MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

10-7  |  Road

105
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 7:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

17-1  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
TIMBERWOLVES --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oklahoma City)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

46.0%

Thunder Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

MIN By 1-7 points

24.3%

MIN By 8-14 points

13.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
110
MINNESOTA
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
112
MINNESOTA
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 MIN @ OKC 103 - 116
Jan 29, 2026 OKC @ MIN 111 - 123
Dec 19, 2025 OKC @ MIN 107 - 112
Nov 26, 2025 MIN @ OKC 105 - 113
May 28, 2025 MIN @ OKC 94 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.2% more
Oklahoma City: 6.6 vs Minnesota: 4.4
Assists (L5) +32.3% more
Oklahoma City: 30.3 vs Minnesota: 22.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.9%
Oklahoma City: 43.3% vs Minnesota: 32.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
Oklahoma City: 52.8% vs Minnesota: 44.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 110.0 105
OKC Score 111.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.3 / 32.4 27.0 / 46.0
Assists 30.3 / 22.9 19.0 / 25.0
Blocks 6.6 / 4.4 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 52.8 / 44.5 48.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 79.4 / 77.9 79.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 41.4 / 48.3 39.0 / 44.0
Steals 10.9 / 11.7 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 16.2 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MIN
OKC
MIN
ML
70% 80-34
54% 63-53
48% 46-49
54% 50-43
ATS
73% 83-30-1
58% 67-49
48% 46-49
54% 50-43
TTL
67% 76-38
63% 72-43-1
100% 95-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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