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MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

5-0  |  Road

89
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 1:00 PM ET
Suncoast Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

2-3  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
PIRATES
100%
SPARTANS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Michigan State)
SpartansMSU (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

72.6%

Pirates Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

MSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

MSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

ECU By 1-7 points

16.9%

ECU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
76
MICHIGAN STATE
70
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
65
MICHIGAN STATE
78
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spartans (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 MSU @ ECU 89 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +47.6% more
Michigan State: 20.0 vs East Carolina: 10.5
Blocks (L5) +30.8% more
Michigan State: 4.7 vs East Carolina: 3.2
Steals (L5) +21.8% more
Michigan State: 6.6 vs East Carolina: 5.1
Rebounding (L5) +12.9% more
Michigan State: 42.5 vs East Carolina: 37.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 76.0 89
ECU Score 70.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 22.0 / 31.6 40.0 / 46.0
Assists 10.5 / 20.0 8.0 / 24.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.7 3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 40.5 / 45.9 33.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 69.5 / 74.8 69.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 42.5 34.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.1 / 6.6 9.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 11.5 24.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
MSU
ECU
MSU
ML
55% 17-14
71% 25-10
55% 17-14
61% 20-13
ATS
52% 16-15
71% 25-10
55% 17-14
61% 20-13
TTL
61% 19-12
49% 17-18
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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