Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Pitt MIA @ PITT

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

9-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 12:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

8-3  |  Home

7
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
Abe Ibrahim
KEY GAME

Abe Ibrahim

#52 | Linebacker
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Abe Ibrahim None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
0%
📊
PITT
100%
MIAMI --
PITT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Miami)
MiamiMIA (-3.5) 0 PittPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

76.2%

Pitt Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

15.3%

MIA By 7-13 points

19.7%

PITT By 1-6 points

10.7%

PITT By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
34
MIAMI
24
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
20
MIAMI
27
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Miami Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Pitt Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Miami (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Pitt (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 MIA @ PITT 38 - 7
Nov 26, 2022 PITT @ MIA 42 - 16
Oct 30, 2021 MIA @ PITT 38 - 34
Oct 17, 2020 PITT @ MIA 19 - 31
Oct 26, 2019 MIA @ PITT 16 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Miami: 0.5 vs Pittsburgh: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +14.4% more
Miami: 446.0 vs Pittsburgh: 381.8
Turnovers (L5) +56.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.2 vs Miami: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 34.0 38
PITT Score 24.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 22.9 11.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 137.3 / 139.1 30.0 / 140.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 381.8 / 446.0 229.0 / 416.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
PITT
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
PITT
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
MIA
PITT
MIA
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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