Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kentucky @ Louisville UK @ LOU

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

5-6  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 12:00 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

7-4  |  Home

41
Key Game
Jacob Kauwe
KEY GAME

Jacob Kauwe

#91 | Place kicker
@
Terrence McWilliams Jr.
KEY GAME

Terrence McWilliams Jr.

#18 | Wide Receiver
Player
Jacob Kauwe None-None
Terrence McWilliams Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENTUCKY
0%
📊
LOUISVILLE
100%
KENTUCKY --
LOUISVILLE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kentucky)
KentuckyUK (-3.5) 0 LouisvilleLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kentucky Cover

69.1%

Louisville Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UK -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

UK By 1-6 points

16.5%

UK By 7-13 points

19.3%

LOU By 1-6 points

12.9%

LOU By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
KENTUCKY
24
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
24
KENTUCKY
27
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kentucky Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisville Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kentucky (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Louisville (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 UK @ LOU 0 - 41
Nov 30, 2024 LOU @ UK 41 - 14
Nov 25, 2023 UK @ LOU 38 - 31
Nov 26, 2022 LOU @ UK 13 - 26
Nov 27, 2021 UK @ LOU 52 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.6% more
Kentucky: 2.2 vs Louisville: 1.2
First Downs (L5) +26.6% more
Kentucky: 21.1 vs Louisville: 15.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Kentucky: 0.4 vs Louisville: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +9.2% more
Kentucky: 368.4 vs Louisville: 334.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UK Score 31.0 0
LOU Score 24.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.5 / 21.1 26.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 161.1 / 125.3 258.0 / 40.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 334.5 / 368.4 440.0 / 140.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 2.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
LOU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.5
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
UK
LOU
UK
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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