Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Alabama @ Auburn ALA @ AUB

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

9-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

5-6  |  Home

20
Key Game
Luke Metz
KEY GAME

Luke Metz

#4 | Linebacker
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Luke Metz None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA
0%
📊
AUBURN
100%
ALABAMA --
AUBURN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Alabama)
AlabamaALA (-3.5) 0 AuburnAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alabama Cover

76.2%

Auburn Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ALA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ALA By 1-6 points

15.3%

ALA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AUB By 1-6 points

10.7%

AUB By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31
ALABAMA
21
AUBURN
Simulated Score
31
ALABAMA
20
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Alabama Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Alabama Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Alabama (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Alabama (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 ALA @ AUB 27 - 20
Nov 30, 2024 AUB @ ALA 14 - 28
Nov 25, 2023 ALA @ AUB 27 - 24
Nov 26, 2022 AUB @ ALA 27 - 49
Nov 27, 2021 ALA @ AUB 24 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.4% more
Alabama: 1.9 vs Auburn: 0.5
Time of Possession (L5) +11.0% more
Alabama: 0.6 vs Auburn: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.5% more
Auburn: 206.0 vs Alabama: 147.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 31.0 27
AUB Score 21.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 24.5 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 206.0 / 147.7 152.0 / 158.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 443.1 / 430.8 411.0 / 280.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
AUB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
ALA
AUB
ALA
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Live Stream, TV Channel, and G…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 45 minutes ago
Five Burning College Football Questions Set to Be Answered This …
foxnews 5 hours, 49 minutes ago
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 5 hours, 49 minutes ago
ESPN's College GameDay Shifts Indoors to Coleman Coliseum for Al…
yahoo 5 hours, 52 minutes ago