Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Carolina @ NC State UNC @ NCSU

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

4-7  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

6-5  |  Home

42
Key Game
Coleman Bryson
KEY GAME

Coleman Bryson

#16 | Defensive Back
@
Kage Payne
KEY GAME

Kage Payne

#52 | Offensive Lineman
Player
Coleman Bryson None-None
Kage Payne None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH CAROLINA
0%
📊
NC STATE
100%
NORTH CAROLINA --
NC STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (North Carolina)
North CarolinaUNC (-3.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Carolina Cover

69.1%

NC State Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

UNC By 1-6 points

16.5%

UNC By 7-13 points

19.3%

NCSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

NCSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
NORTH CAROLINA
24
NC STATE
Simulated Score
24
NORTH CAROLINA
27
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI North Carolina Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim NC State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI North Carolina (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim NC State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 UNC @ NCSU 19 - 42
Nov 30, 2024 NCSU @ UNC 35 - 30
Nov 25, 2023 UNC @ NCSU 20 - 39
Nov 25, 2022 NCSU @ UNC 30 - 27
Nov 26, 2021 UNC @ NCSU 30 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.8% more
NC State: 127.8 vs North Carolina: 97.7
Turnovers (L5) +27.0% more
NC State: 0.9 vs North Carolina: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +12.3% more
NC State: 334.7 vs North Carolina: 298.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 31.0 19
NCSU Score 24.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 17.0 27.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 127.8 / 97.7 185.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 334.7 / 298.0 386.0 / 265.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
NCSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
NCSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
UNC
NCSU
UNC
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
ATS
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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