Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Northwestern @ Illinois NU @ ILL

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

6-5  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

7-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Ricky Ahumaraeze
KEY GAME

Ricky Ahumaraeze

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Joe Barna
KEY GAME

Joe Barna

#43 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Ricky Ahumaraeze None-None
Joe Barna None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTHWESTERN
0%
📊
ILLINOIS
100%
NORTHWESTERN --
ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Northwestern)
NorthwesternNU (-3.5) 0 IllinoisILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Northwestern Cover

58.5%

Illinois Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

NU By 1-6 points

17.0%

NU By 7-13 points

17.5%

ILL By 1-6 points

15.3%

ILL By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
17
NORTHWESTERN
14
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
20
NORTHWESTERN
27
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Northwestern Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Illinois Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Northwestern (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Illinois (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 31.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 NU @ ILL 13 - 20
Nov 30, 2024 ILL @ NU 38 - 28
Nov 25, 2023 NU @ ILL 45 - 43
Nov 26, 2022 ILL @ NU 41 - 3
Nov 27, 2021 NU @ ILL 14 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.1% more
Northwestern: 1.1 vs Illinois: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Northwestern: 160.8 vs Illinois: 131.1
First Downs (L5) +15.2% more
Illinois: 21.8 vs Northwestern: 19.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 17.0 13
ILL Score 14.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 19.0 14.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 131.1 / 160.8 120.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.2 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 361.4 / 374.6 284.0 / 254.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.1 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
8%MONEY92%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
NU
ILL
NU
ML
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
TTL
80% 4-1
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 6 hours, 34 minutes ago
Wisconsin Badgers Rank Third in National TV Viewership Through E…
si 6 hours, 36 minutes ago
Texas Longhorns Lead College Football Viewership Through Week 5,…
si 6 hours, 36 minutes ago
Five Burning College Football Questions Set to Be Answered This …
foxnews 6 hours, 38 minutes ago
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 6 hours, 38 minutes ago