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SMU

SMUSMU

8-3  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 8:00 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

6-5  |  Home

38
Key Game
Kendrick Raphael
KEY GAME

Kendrick Raphael

#6 | Running Back
@
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Kendrick Raphael None-None
Chase Meyer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SMU
0%
📊
CALIFORNIA
100%
SMU --
CALIFORNIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
28.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (SMU)
SMUSMU (-3.5) 0 CaliforniaCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SMU Cover

97.7%

California Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SMU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

SMU By 1-6 points

3.8%

SMU By 7-13 points

8.8%

CAL By 1-6 points

1.4%

CAL By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
28
SMU
0
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
27
SMU
34
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI SMU Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim California Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI SMU (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim California (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 28.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 SMU @ CAL 35 - 38
Nov 30, 2024 CAL @ SMU 6 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.5% more
SMU: 143.8 vs California: 42.5
Total Yards (L5) +27.2% more
SMU: 450.3 vs California: 328.0
First Downs (L5) +20.4% more
SMU: 22.0 vs California: 17.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
SMU: 0.5 vs California: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 28.0 35
CAL Score 0.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 22.0 27.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 42.5 / 143.8 122.0 / 227.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 328.0 / 450.3 452.0 / 477.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU Advantage
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
SMU
CAL
SMU
ML
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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