Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Warriors UTAH @ GS

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

5-11  |  Road

117
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

9-9  |  Home

134
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
JAZZ --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Utah)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

100.0%

Warriors Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTAH -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

UTAH By 1-7 points

0.1%

UTAH By 8-14 points

1.1%

GS By 1-7 points

0.0%

GS By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
133
UTAH
96
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
108
UTAH
112
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jazz Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jazz (-13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u239.0 Loss
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim u239.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 GS @ UTAH 116 - 119
Jan 28, 2026 GS @ UTAH 140 - 124
Jan 3, 2026 UTAH @ GS 114 - 123
Nov 24, 2025 UTAH @ GS 117 - 134
Feb 5, 2025 GS @ UTAH 128 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +10.3% more
Utah: 29.9 vs Golden State: 26.8
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Utah: 46.3% vs Golden State: 44.5%
Blocks (L5) +46.6% more
Golden State: 4.3 vs Utah: 3.0
Steals (L5) +27.5% more
Golden State: 11.5 vs Utah: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 133.0 117
GS Score 96.0 134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 35.4 37.0 / 31.0
Assists 26.8 / 29.9 34.0 / 32.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.0 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 46.3 49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 81.7 / 79.0 72.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 42.7 50.0 / 47.0
Steals 11.5 / 9.1 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 17.5 / 18.0 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
UTAH
GS
UTAH
ML
55% 95-79
60% 96-63
58% 49-35
48% 40-43
ATS
58% 101-73
68% 108-51
58% 49-35
48% 40-43
TTL
77% 134-40
75% 119-39-1
100% 84-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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