Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Volunteers @ Cougars TENN @ HOU

TENNESSEE

VOLUNTEERSTENN

5-0  |  Road

76
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 6:00 PM ET
MGM Grand Garden Arena
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

COUGARSHOU

5-0  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
VOLUNTEERS
0%
📊
COUGARS
100%
VOLUNTEERS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Tennessee)
VolunteersTENN (-3.5) 0 CougarsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Volunteers Cover

100.0%

Cougars Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TENN -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

TENN By 1-7 points

0.3%

TENN By 8-14 points

1.7%

HOU By 1-7 points

0.0%

HOU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
88
TENNESSEE
53
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
68
TENNESSEE
71
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Volunteers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Volunteers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 TENN @ HOU 76 - 73
Mar 30, 2025 TENN @ HOU 50 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.4% more
Tennessee: 13.6 vs Houston: 10.0
Assists (L5) +20.0% more
Tennessee: 20.1 vs Houston: 16.1
Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Tennessee: 48.8% vs Houston: 43.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Tennessee: 38.5% vs Houston: 35.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 88.0 76
HOU Score 53.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 38.5 38.0 / 29.0
Assists 16.1 / 20.1 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 5.5 / 3.9 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 48.8 46.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 78.9 / 76.4 73.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 41.8 / 43.3 33.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.6 / 8.2 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 13.6 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
HOU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
17-19-1 (47.2%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
HOU Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3% Total +/-: 0.0
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TENN
HOU
TENN
ML
70% 26-11
46% 17-20
68% 23-11
64% 21-12
ATS
70% 26-11
54% 20-17
68% 23-11
64% 21-12
TTL
59% 22-15
76% 28-9
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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