DETROIT
PISTONSDET
13-2 | Road
129
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
8-8 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
BUCKS
0%
PISTONS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
DET By 1-7 points
1.4%
DET By 8-14 points
0.2%
MIL By 1-7 points
6.8%
MIL By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
111
DETROIT
Milwaukee
132
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Detroit
108
DETROIT
Milwaukee
125
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+8)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o223.5
Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim
u223.5
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
MIL @ DET
111 - 137
Dec 6, 2025
MIL @ DET
112 - 124
Dec 3, 2025
DET @ MIL
109 - 113
Nov 22, 2025
DET @ MIL
129 - 116
Oct 9, 2025
DET @ MIL
111 - 117
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.4%
Milwaukee: 42.9%
vs
Detroit: 33.4%
Blocks (L5)
+48.6% more
Detroit: 5.5
vs
Milwaukee: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+30.0% more
Detroit: 11.0
vs
Milwaukee: 7.7
Rebounding (L5)
+10.7% more
Detroit: 43.1
vs
Milwaukee: 38.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
111.0
129
MIL Score
132.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.9 / 33.4
47.0 / 53.0
Assists
27.4 / 28.4
29.0 / 31.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.5
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 51.8
51.0 / 63.0
Free Throw %
72.3 / 76.4
83.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 43.1
35.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.7 / 11.0
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 15.5
17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
DET
MIL
DET
ML
64%
61-35
55%
64-53
60%
49-32
49%
47-49
ATS
68%
65-31
53%
60-54-3
60%
49-32
49%
47-49
TTL
55%
53-43
60%
70-46-1
100%
81-0
100%
96-0
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