PITTSBURGH
PANTHERSPITT
4-1 | Road
67
UCF
KNIGHTSUCF
4-1 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
KNIGHTS
0%
PANTHERS
--
KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (UCF)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCF -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)
PITT By 1-7 points
3.3%
PITT By 8-14 points
0.6%
UCF By 1-7 points
12.2%
UCF By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
74
PITTSBURGH
UCF
91
UCF
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
69
PITTSBURGH
UCF
72
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Knights
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 20, 2025
PITT @ UCF
67 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+29.0% more
UCF: 19.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 15.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.5%
UCF: 78.1%
vs
Pittsburgh: 66.6%
Turnovers (L5)
+8.8% more
UCF: 13.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 12.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
UCF: 43.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 37.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PITT Score
74.0
67
UCF Score
91.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.3 / 37.9
33.0 / 26.0
Assists
19.9 / 15.4
13.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.7 / 3.7
0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 45.3
52.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
78.1 / 66.6
58.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 38.6
37.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.7 / 6.9
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 12.1
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-: -0.5
UCF
Advantage
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-: -0.5
UCF
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
PITT
UCF
PITT
ML
55%
18-15
58%
19-14
65%
20-11
45%
15-18
ATS
55%
18-15
64%
21-12
65%
20-11
45%
15-18
TTL
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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