GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
9-7 | Road
96
MIAMI
HEATMIA
8-6 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
HEAT
0%
WARRIORS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
GS By 1-7 points
0.6%
GS By 8-14 points
0.1%
MIA By 1-7 points
4.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
110
GOLDEN STATE
Miami
134
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Golden State
115
GOLDEN STATE
Miami
118
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.0
Loss
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 19, 2026
MIA @ GS
112 - 135
Nov 19, 2025
GS @ MIA
96 - 110
Mar 25, 2025
GS @ MIA
86 - 112
Jan 7, 2025
MIA @ GS
114 - 98
Mar 26, 2024
GS @ MIA
113 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+20.7% more
Miami: 5.1
vs
Golden State: 4.3
Assists (L5)
+11.7% more
Miami: 29.6
vs
Golden State: 26.5
Rebounding (L5)
+8.4% more
Miami: 43.1
vs
Golden State: 39.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Miami: 39.2%
vs
Golden State: 37.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
110.0
96
MIA Score
134.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 37.6
37.0 / 27.0
Assists
29.6 / 26.5
30.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.1 / 4.3
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 46.1
41.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
80.5 / 81.0
73.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
43.1 / 39.8
52.0 / 62.0
Steals
6.3 / 11.5
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 17.5
14.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
GS
MIA
GS
ML
48%
46-50
55%
95-79
59%
48-34
58%
49-35
ATS
51%
49-47
58%
101-73
59%
48-34
58%
49-35
TTL
59%
57-39
77%
134-40
100%
82-0
100%
84-0
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