EAST CAROLINA
PIRATESECU
2-1 | Road
60
UNC WILMINGTON
SEAHAWKSUNCW
2-1 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
SEAHAWKS
0%
PIRATES
--
SEAHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
UNC WILMINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (UNC Wilmington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCW -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCW)
ECU By 1-7 points
12.2%
ECU By 8-14 points
4.0%
UNCW By 1-7 points
24.3%
UNCW By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
East Carolina
64
EAST CAROLINA
UNC Wilmington
73
UNC WILMINGTON
Simulated Score
East Carolina
72
EAST CAROLINA
UNC Wilmington
75
UNC WILMINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seahawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Seahawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 18, 2025
ECU @ UNCW
60 - 85
Dec 3, 2024
UNCW @ ECU
67 - 53
Nov 30, 2023
UNCW @ ECU
66 - 74
Dec 6, 2022
ECU @ UNCW
61 - 74
Dec 7, 2020
UNCW @ ECU
78 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+11.9% more
UNC Wilmington: 6.2
vs
East Carolina: 5.5
Rebounding (L5)
+8.1% more
UNC Wilmington: 42.0
vs
East Carolina: 38.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
UNC Wilmington: 29.4%
vs
East Carolina: 22.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+30.0% more
East Carolina: 14.3
vs
UNC Wilmington: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ECU Score
64.0
60
UNCW Score
73.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.4 / 22.0
50.0 / 28.0
Assists
12.8 / 12.9
19.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.8 / 3.0
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 43.2
50.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 76.4
75.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
42.0 / 38.9
42.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.2 / 5.5
1.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 14.3
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
UNCW
Advantage
27-7-0
(79.4%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
UNCW
Advantage
16-14-2
(53.3%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.9
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCW
ECU
UNCW
ECU
ML
64%
21-12
55%
17-14
52%
17-16
55%
17-14
ATS
58%
19-14
52%
16-15
52%
17-16
55%
17-14
TTL
61%
20-13
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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