Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Virginia Tech MIA @ VT

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

8-2  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 12:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

3-7  |  Home

17
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
John Love None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
0%
📊
VIRGINIA TECH
100%
MIAMI --
VIRGINIA TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Miami)
MiamiMIA (-3.5) 0 Virginia TechVT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

98.9%

Virginia Tech Cover

1.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

2.2%

MIA By 7-13 points

5.9%

VT By 1-6 points

0.7%

VT By 7-13 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
42
MIAMI
10
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
20
MIAMI
27
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Miami Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Virginia Tech Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Miami (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Sim Virginia Tech (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 MIA @ VT 34 - 17
Sep 27, 2024 VT @ MIA 34 - 38
Oct 15, 2022 MIA @ VT 20 - 14
Nov 20, 2021 VT @ MIA 26 - 38
Nov 14, 2020 MIA @ VT 25 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +23.9% more
Miami: 460.0 vs Virginia Tech: 350.1
First Downs (L5) +16.5% more
Miami: 23.4 vs Virginia Tech: 19.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.5% more
Virginia Tech: 219.8 vs Miami: 167.1
Turnovers (L5) +11.0% more
Virginia Tech: 1.1 vs Miami: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 42.0 34
VT Score 10.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 23.4 20.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 219.8 / 167.1 194.0 / 83.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 350.1 / 460.0 395.0 / 418.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
VT
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
VT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
VT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
MIA
VT
MIA
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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