Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisville @ SMU LOU @ SMU

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

7-3  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 12:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

7-3  |  Home

38
Key Game
Eric Hazzard
KEY GAME

Eric Hazzard

#40 | Defensive Lineman
@
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
Player
Eric Hazzard None-None
Wade McSparron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISVILLE
100%
📊
SMU
0%
LOUISVILLE --
SMU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (SMU)
LouisvilleLOU (-3.5) 0 SMUSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisville Cover

47.2%

SMU Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SMU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

LOU By 1-6 points

16.1%

LOU By 7-13 points

14.6%

SMU By 1-6 points

16.7%

SMU By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3
LOUISVILLE
4
SMU
Simulated Score
31
LOUISVILLE
28
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI SMU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisville Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI SMU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim Louisville (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 SMU @ LOU 31 - 41
Nov 22, 2025 LOU @ SMU 6 - 38
Oct 5, 2024 SMU @ LOU 34 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +11.7% more
SMU: 432.9 vs Louisville: 387.7
First Downs (L5) +10.3% more
SMU: 19.0 vs Louisville: 17.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
SMU: 0.4 vs Louisville: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.7% more
Louisville: 177.6 vs SMU: 126.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 3.0 6
SMU Score 4.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 17.2 28.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 126.7 / 177.6 178.0 / 128.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.69 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 432.9 / 387.7 485.0 / 228.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
SMU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
SMU
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
LOU
SMU
LOU
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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