Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kansas @ Iowa State KU @ ISU

KANSAS

KANSASKU

5-5  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 12:00 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

6-4  |  Home

38
Key Game
Calvin Clements
KEY GAME

Calvin Clements

#75 | Offensive Lineman
@
Kyle Konrardy
KEY GAME

Kyle Konrardy

#97 | Place kicker
Player
Calvin Clements None-None
Kyle Konrardy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS
100%
📊
IOWA STATE
0%
KANSAS --
IOWA STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Iowa State)
KansasKU (-3.5) 0 Iowa StateISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas Cover

38.8%

Iowa State Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ISU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

KU By 1-6 points

14.7%

KU By 7-13 points

12.1%

ISU By 1-6 points

17.0%

ISU By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
17
KANSAS
21
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS
27
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Iowa State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 KU @ ISU 14 - 38
Nov 9, 2024 ISU @ KU 36 - 45
Nov 4, 2023 KU @ ISU 28 - 21
Oct 1, 2022 ISU @ KU 11 - 14
Oct 2, 2021 KU @ ISU 7 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +91.0% more
Iowa State: 1.7 vs Kansas: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KU Score 17.0 14
ISU Score 21.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 19.2 25.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 166.8 / 160.8 221.0 / 132.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 364.9 / 352.4 462.0 / 323.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
ISU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
ISU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
KU
ISU
KU
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2-1
0% 0-4
TTL
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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