Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri St @ Kennesaw St MOST @ KENN

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

7-3  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 2:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

7-3  |  Home

41
Key Game
Cooper Roy
KEY GAME

Cooper Roy

#31 | Linebacker
@
Daniel Kinney
KEY GAME

Daniel Kinney

#89 | Place kicker
Player
Cooper Roy None-None
Daniel Kinney None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
100%
📊
KENNESAW ST
0%
MISSOURI ST --
KENNESAW ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kennesaw State)
Missouri StMOST (-3.5) 0 Kennesaw StKENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

47.2%

Kennesaw St Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

MOST By 1-6 points

16.1%

MOST By 7-13 points

14.6%

KENN By 1-6 points

16.7%

KENN By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20
MISSOURI STATE
21
KENNESAW STATE
Simulated Score
24
MISSOURI STATE
27
KENNESAW STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kennesaw St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kennesaw St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kennesaw St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim Kennesaw St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 MOST @ KENN 34 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +130.0% more
Kennesaw State: 2.1 vs Missouri State: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +71.8% more
Kennesaw State: 189.5 vs Missouri State: 110.3
Total Yards (L5) +17.7% more
Kennesaw State: 455.3 vs Missouri State: 387.0
First Downs (L5) +8.3% more
Kennesaw State: 23.9 vs Missouri State: 22.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 20.0 34
KENN Score 21.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.9 / 22.1 26.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 189.5 / 110.3 113.0 / 191.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 455.3 / 387.0 500.0 / 535.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
2%MONEY98%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
KENN
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
KENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.1
KENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
MOST
KENN
MOST
ML
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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