Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duke @ North Carolina DUKE @ UNC

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

5-5  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:30 PM ET
Kenan Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

4-6  |  Home

25
Key Game
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
@
Xavier Lewis
KEY GAME

Xavier Lewis

#90 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Kade Reynoldson None-None
Xavier Lewis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUKE
100%
📊
NORTH CAROLINA
0%
DUKE --
NORTH CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (North Carolina)
DukeDUKE (-3.5) 0 North CarolinaUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duke Cover

41.5%

North Carolina Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

DUKE By 1-6 points

15.3%

DUKE By 7-13 points

12.9%

UNC By 1-6 points

17.0%

UNC By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24
DUKE
27
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
24
DUKE
34
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI North Carolina Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim North Carolina Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI North Carolina (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim North Carolina (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 DUKE @ UNC 32 - 25
Sep 28, 2024 UNC @ DUKE 20 - 21
Nov 11, 2023 DUKE @ UNC 45 - 47
Oct 15, 2022 UNC @ DUKE 38 - 35
Oct 2, 2021 DUKE @ UNC 7 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +20.1% more
Duke: 368.6 vs North Carolina: 294.4
Turnovers (L5) +18.9% more
Duke: 1.2 vs North Carolina: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +16.3% more
Duke: 19.7 vs North Carolina: 16.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 24.0 32
UNC Score 27.0 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.5 / 19.7 18.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 96.1 / 102.4 101.0 / 177.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 294.4 / 368.6 305.0 / 352.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
DUKE
UNC
DUKE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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