Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / California @ Stanford CAL @ STAN

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

6-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 7:30 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

3-7  |  Home

31
Key Game
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
@
Emmet Kenney
KEY GAME

Emmet Kenney

#13 | Place kicker
Player
Chase Meyer None-None
Emmet Kenney None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
0%
📊
STANFORD
100%
CALIFORNIA --
STANFORD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (California)
CaliforniaCAL (-3.5) 0 StanfordSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

California Cover

95.7%

Stanford Cover

4.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CAL -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

CAL By 1-6 points

5.9%

CAL By 7-13 points

12.1%

STAN By 1-6 points

2.5%

STAN By 7-13 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
31
CALIFORNIA
7
STANFORD
Simulated Score
24
CALIFORNIA
27
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI California Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Stanford Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI California (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim Stanford (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 CAL @ STAN 10 - 31
Nov 23, 2024 STAN @ CAL 21 - 24
Nov 18, 2023 CAL @ STAN 27 - 15
Nov 19, 2022 STAN @ CAL 20 - 27
Nov 20, 2021 CAL @ STAN 41 - 11
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.1% more
California: 57.7 vs Stanford: 46.6
Total Yards (L5) +12.3% more
California: 343.5 vs Stanford: 301.4
Turnovers (L5) +113.0% more
Stanford: 2.0 vs California: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 31.0 10
STAN Score 7.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 18.8 17.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 46.6 / 57.7 159.0 / 12.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 301.4 / 343.5 282.0 / 297.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.9 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
STAN Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
CAL
STAN
CAL
ML
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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