ILLINOIS
ILLINOISILL
7-3 | Road
10
WISCONSIN
WISCONSINWIS
3-7 | Home
27
Key Game
KEY GAME
Mac Resetich
#0 | Defensive Back@
KEY GAME
Sebastian Cheeks
#15 | Linebacker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Mac Resetich | None-None |
| Sebastian Cheeks | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ILLINOIS
0%
WISCONSIN
100%
ILLINOIS
--
WISCONSIN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ILL -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
ILL By 1-6 points
0.9%
ILL By 7-13 points
2.8%
WIS By 1-6 points
0.2%
WIS By 7-13 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois
38
ILLINOIS
Wisconsin
0
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
Illinois
20
ILLINOIS
Wisconsin
27
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Illinois
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Wisconsin
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Illinois (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Sim
Wisconsin (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 22, 2025
ILL @ WIS
10 - 27
Oct 21, 2023
WIS @ ILL
25 - 21
Oct 1, 2022
ILL @ WIS
34 - 10
Oct 9, 2021
WIS @ ILL
24 - 0
Oct 23, 2020
ILL @ WIS
7 - 45
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+53.4% more
Illinois: 23.3
vs
Wisconsin: 10.8
Total Yards (L5)
+50.1% more
Illinois: 393.1
vs
Wisconsin: 196.0
Rushing Yards (L5)
+39.2% more
Illinois: 171.6
vs
Wisconsin: 104.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+30.0% more
Illinois: 0.5
vs
Wisconsin: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILL Score
38.0
10
WIS Score
0.0
27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
10.8 / 23.3
14.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards
104.3 / 171.6
209.0 / 50.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.2 / 0.5
0.47 / 0.31
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards
196.0 / 393.1
301.0 / 298.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -5.6
WIS
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 15.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -5.6
WIS
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 15.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +1.3
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
ILL
WIS
ILL
ML
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
ATS
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
TTL
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
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