Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana @ Arkansas St UL @ ARST

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

4-6  |  Road

34
FINAL
Thu, Nov 20 • 7:30 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

5-5  |  Home

30
Key Game
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
@
Ryan Reese
KEY GAME

Ryan Reese

#54 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Tony Sterner None-None
Ryan Reese None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA
100%
📊
ARKANSAS ST
0%
LOUISIANA --
ARKANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Arkansas State)
LouisianaUL (-3.5) 0 Arkansas StARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Cover

6.7%

Arkansas St Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARST -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

UL By 1-6 points

3.8%

UL By 7-13 points

1.8%

ARST By 1-6 points

7.9%

ARST By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
10
LOUISIANA
31
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
24
LOUISIANA
31
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arkansas St Loss
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Arkansas St Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arkansas St (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
A
Sim Arkansas St (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
A
Sim o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ARST @ UL 20 - 23
Nov 20, 2025 UL @ ARST 34 - 30
Nov 9, 2024 ARST @ UL 19 - 55
Nov 4, 2023 UL @ ARST 17 - 37
Oct 22, 2022 ARST @ UL 18 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +82.5% more
Arkansas State: 3.0 vs Louisiana: 1.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.6% more
Louisiana: 179.6 vs Arkansas State: 128.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 10.0 34
ARST Score 31.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 21.9 24.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 128.2 / 179.6 138.0 / 202.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.27 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 396.3 / 373.0 394.0 / 349.0
Turnovers 3.0 / 1.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
UL
ARST
UL
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
100% 4-0
75% 3-1-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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