MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
8-6 | Road
106
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
9-5 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
BUCKS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-7 points
8.0%
MIL By 8-14 points
18.6%
CLE By 1-7 points
1.7%
CLE By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
125
MILWAUKEE
Cleveland
105
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Cleveland
118
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
CLE @ MIL
123 - 116
Feb 25, 2026
CLE @ MIL
116 - 118
Nov 17, 2025
MIL @ CLE
106 - 118
Oct 26, 2025
MIL @ CLE
113 - 118
Mar 9, 2025
CLE @ MIL
112 - 100
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.2%
Milwaukee: 43.7%
vs
Cleveland: 31.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Milwaukee: 48.9%
vs
Cleveland: 45.2%
Blocks (L5)
+64.3% more
Cleveland: 7.3
vs
Milwaukee: 4.4
Rebounding (L5)
+18.2% more
Cleveland: 45.0
vs
Milwaukee: 38.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
125.0
106
CLE Score
105.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.4 / 43.7
43.0 / 47.0
Assists
26.5 / 26.2
25.0 / 26.0
Blocks
7.3 / 4.4
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 48.9
56.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 68.4
71.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
45.0 / 38.0
45.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.3 / 7.6
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 15.6
18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIL
CLE
MIL
ML
60%
69-46
64%
61-35
56%
55-44
60%
49-32
ATS
67%
75-37-3
68%
65-31
56%
55-44
60%
49-32
TTL
59%
68-47
55%
53-43
100%
99-0
100%
81-0
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