Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Grizzlies @ Knights OAK @ UCF

OAKLAND

GOLDEN GRIZZLIESOAK

1-3  |  Road

83
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Addition Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

3-1  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
KNIGHTS
100%
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
190.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
OAKLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Oakland)
Golden GrizzliesOAK (-3.5) 0 KnightsUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Grizzlies Cover

91.9%

Knights Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OAK -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OAK)

OAK By 1-7 points

16.9%

OAK By 8-14 points

26.2%

UCF By 1-7 points

5.8%

UCF By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
102
OAKLAND
88
UCF
Simulated Score
70
OAKLAND
75
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Grizzlies (-13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o162.5 Win
Proj Total: 190.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2025 OAK @ UCF 83 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.9% more
Oakland: 10.1 vs UCF: 6.5
Blocks (L5) +106.9% more
UCF: 3.6 vs Oakland: 1.7
Assists (L5) +34.7% more
UCF: 19.4 vs Oakland: 14.4
Turnovers (L5) +25.6% more
UCF: 14.3 vs Oakland: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OAK Score 102.0 83
UCF Score 88.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 50.0 / 33.2 30.0 / 39.0
Assists 19.4 / 14.4 21.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.7 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.0 / 48.1 48.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 81.2 / 73.5 72.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 35.6 42.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.5 / 10.1 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 11.4 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OAK
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -0.1
UCF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OAK Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -0.1
UCF
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OAK
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.0
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
OAK
UCF
OAK
ML
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
59% 19-13
ATS
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
65% 20-11
59% 19-13
TTL
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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